Alarm

When mistrust between major social groups starts to feed on itself, it can quickly turn into a vicious circle of increasing conflict that undermines institutions and destroys relations. We saw it less than a century ago in the collapse of Weimar Germany and the rise of the Nazis. More recently, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Rwanda have experienced similar patterns: groups that had lived together and intermarried for generations, despite simmering resentments, suddenly exploded into genocidal warfare

Those who have studied or experienced such descents into madness say that while it is  impossible to predict when things might get out of hand, the spiral can gain momentum very quickly. It starts with a deep sense of grievance by people who feel marginalized, left out of the core community, treated as second-class citizens. They may find their voice in a leader who expresses those resentments and promises a restoration of pride. Fed by the most powerful human emotions – resentment, humiliation, moral righteousness – that can quickly escalate into an us-or-them, with-us-or-against us battle. Norms of civility and democracy are seen as handcuffs in this battle, a luxury that can no longer be afforded. Any actions are justifiable in pursuit of victory over the despised enemy.

How close are we to this in the U.S.? It’s hard to tell, but there are very alarming signs.

• Political polarization has dramatically increased in the past decade, accelerating a trend going back to the 1970s. Most notably, Pew finds that on both sides of the political aisle, there has been a sharp increase in active dislike of the other side. In just the last four years, the percentage of Republicans who view Democrats very unfavorably has gone from 46% to 58%, and the percentage of Democrats who have the same view of Republicans has gone from 43% to 55%. This is the worst result in the 25 years this question has been asked.

• The 2018 Edelman Trust Barometer reports an extraordinary, unprecedented decline in trust in US institutions – one might almost call it a collapse. “The last year has seen an aggregate 37 percent slump in trust across government, media, businesses and non-government organizations (NGOs) in the U.S … The trust decline in the U.S. is the steepest ever measured among the ‘general population,’ and … among the ‘informed public’ trust ha[s] also imploded.”

More anecdotally, I was struck and alarmed by this story from David French – a National Review conservative, but not a Trump supporter, and therefore one of the shrinking group that can see a bit over the dividing wall:

“I’m reminded of an encounter at my church. People know that I opposed both Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton. They often ask what I think of the president’s performance. My standard response: I like some things, I dislike others, but I really wish he showed better character. I don’t want him to lie. I said this to a sweet older lady not long ago, and she responded — in all sincerity — “You mean Trump lies?” “Yes,” I replied. “All the time.” She didn’t answer with a defense. She didn’t say “fake news.” We’d known each other for years, and she trusted my words.

For a moment, she seemed troubled. I wanted to talk more — to say that we can appreciate and applaud the good things he does, but we can’t ignore his flaws, we can’t defend his sins, and we can’t let him define the future of the Republican Party.

But just then, her jaw set. I saw a flare of defiance in her eyes. She took a sip of coffee, looked straight at me, and I knew exactly what was coming next:

‘Well, the Democrats are worse.’”

“The other side is worse” – that reasoning can justify anything. In the darker corners of the blogosphere, we already see it. A column in Townhall – far from the most extreme right-wing voice – says:

“For liberals, civility is … a way to keep you from interrupting their non-stop attacks on your rights, your faith, and your dignity ...

The problem is that progressives are not people of good faith.

They are not trying to reason. They are not trying to compromise. They do not accept the basic concept that all American citizens have inalienable rights and that the law must apply equally to everyone. They hate us. 

We are sub-human, unworthy of courtesy or respect. We have no rights; they might allow us some control over our personal lives, for now, but we exist at their sufferance. That’s their view. That’s their basic premise – and if you ever go on social media they will tell you. So it’s no wonder that they feel no need to be civil.

Time to accept reality. We don’t share a common foundation of beliefs … You can’t have a discussion or a conversation with people whose bottom line position is that you must be gone, or at least stripped of anything like your rights and sovereignty.

All you can do is fight them.”

These passions are strong on the left as well. I have heard liberals in my own circle dismiss all Trump supporters as stupid or evil, and occasionally say things that are so vicious towards the other side that I don’t even want to repeat them here. As a liberal myself, I tend to discount them, to excuse them as temporary aberrations in the heat of the moment. But they accelerate the vicious circle.

We have to stop this. It’s incredibly dangerous. We all feel morally justified. But the impulse to express moral outrage, while it makes us feel good, creates the real and present danger of bringing down the system. As progressives, our fundamental belief is that we should include rather than exclude. We have to move forward together, or we will move backward in a hurry.

I think there is actually a feasible solution – not easy, perhaps, but feasible. A ton of evidence suggests that it is as easy to break the vicious circle, even to reverse it, as it is to build it. In particular, when people experience the other side as listening to them seriously, and as willing to question their own orthodoxies, the walls can rapidly crumble and the weapons be sheathed.

I have seen this in action many times. I have myself had casual conversations with people on the Right – in marches or polarized meetings, or even online – which go roughly like this:

Conservative: “Liberals hate Western culture. They think Shakespeare shouldn’t be taught because he’s a dead white male. They would never criticize a Muslim terrorist. And when we do, they say we’re all racists.”

Me: “I’m a liberal, and I don’t think that. I love Shakespeare, and Plato, and Augustine, and Mark Twain. Some of my friends argue that we should be teaching more of non-Western cultures as well as Western -- that students should know something about Chinese and African and, yes, Muslim history -- but I've never heard anyone suggest Shakespeare should not be taught. I think we should stop making assumptions about people we don't know and start actually talking to each other.”

Conservative: [usually after a few exchanges, but rarely more than five minutes] “Judging by your comments, you sound like a traditional liberal who in this day and age is closer to being a moderate. I am focused on the ultra-left, of which you are certainly not one. …”

 In other words, one can very quickly move from a definition of the situation that sees  all liberals as bad, to one that sees some liberals as bad, and many that you can talk to. And I also find myself understanding some of what’s behind their views – the differences within the conservative view, the motivations I can sympathize with. And from there one can often begin to think about some concrete things you agree on.

A group called Better Angels is doing this systematically in Red-Blue dialogues around the country. Allsides publishes a news feed with a left column, a center column, and a right column showing the different perspectives on the same story. Spaceship Media holds moderated online dialogues across the political divide. Dozens of other organizations at the national level, and thousands of local groups, are working in the same direction to bridge the polarities. There’s at least a possible path forward towards breaking the cycle of mistrust.

Other things will be needed to heal our nation. I believe the soaring levels of economic inequality fundamentally damage the fabric of community. I believe that the growing effects of climate change may cause severe crises. But none of these problems – and others, including ones more important to conservatives – can be solved without a foundation of trust. None of them cannot be solved by either party alone. We need first to rebuild enough of a sense of shared destiny that we can agree on some steps together.

We have seen already that the erosion of trust makes it hard to do much of anything for anyone. Let us hope that it will not drag us into a state of conflict that will knock our civilization back by decades or centuries. Actually, let us do more than hope – let’s work hard to avoid that.